Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
99 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
Specifically my home state of Michigan, but also Wisconsin, New York, Texas, Ohio, and Pennslyvania. I’ve been considering doing a diary on competitive races here in Michigan, but I want to know if people are interested. If so, let me know.
Senate:
Colorado
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oregon
House:
AZ-01
AZ-03
CA-46
CA-50
CO-04
FL-13
FL-18
FL-25
NV-02
NV-03
NJ-05
NJ-07
NM-01
NM-02
NY-26
As you can see, I’m particulary interested in what’s happening out west. Especially now with the convention over, I’d like to see if a likely “Obama bounce” in Colorado results in a bounce downticket for Mark Udall & Betsy Markey.
And the republicans gave me another reason to despise them and support Obama more than ever by picking a pretty face with almost no practical experience and insane views on everything from creationism to women’s rights. November can’t come soon enough. I was that smug prick McCain to go down in flames and retire to one of his dozen or so homes for good.
1. caption: McCain and Dubya attempt to sarcastically wish bin Laden a happy birthday, shortly before they suddenly realize that they actually haven’t caught and killed him yet.
2. senate races
Races in order of likelihood of flipping:
VA M. Warner vs. Gilmore [J. Warner (R)]
AK Begich vs. Stevens*
NM T. Udall vs. Pearce [Domenici (R)]
NH Shaheen vs. J. E. Sununu*
CO M. Udall vs. Schaffer [Allard (R)]
MN Franken vs. Coleman*
MS-special Musgrove vs. Wicker*
OR Merkley vs. Smith*
NC Hagan vs. Dole*
GA Martin vs. Chambliss*
ID LaRocco vs. Risch [Craig (R)]
ME Allen vs. Collins*
OK Rice vs. Inhofe*
KY Lunsford vs. McConnell*
LA Landrieu* vs. J. N. Kennedy
NE Kleeb vs. Johanns [Hagel (R)]
TX Noriega vs. Cornyn*
KS Slattery vs. Roberts*
and then the rest. I’m also following MA (Kerry vs. ?) and WY (Rothfuss vs. Enzi*) out of personal interest.
3. House races
AK-AL Berkowitz vs. ? [Young (R)]
CA-04 Brown vs. McClintock
CA-11 McNerney* vs.
CA-26 R. Warner vs. Dreier*
CA-46 Cook vs. Rorhabacher*
WA-08 Burner vs. Reichert*
OR-05 Schrader vs. Erickson [Hooley (D)]
ID-01 Minnick vs. Sali*
WY-AL Trauner vs. Lummis
CO-04 Markey vs. Musgrave*
AZ-01 ? vs. ? [Renzi (R)]
AZ-05 Mitchell* vs. ?
AZ-08 Giffords* vs. Bee
NM-01 Heinrich vs. White [H. Wilson (R)]
NM-02 Teague vs. Tinsley [Pearce (R)]
NM-03 Lujan vs. East [T. Udall (D)]
TX-07 Skelly vs. Culberson*
TX-10 Doherty vs. McCaul*
TX-22 Lampson* vs. Olsen
TX-23 Rodriguez* vs. Larson
OK-01 Oliver vs. Sullivan*
NE-02 Esch vs. Terry*
KS-02 Boyda* vs. Jenkins
MN-01 Walz* vs. ?
MN-02 Sarvi vs. Kline*
MN-03 Madia vs. Paulsen [Ramstad (R)]
WI-08 Kagen* vs. Gard
MI-07 Schauer vs. Walberg*
MI-09 Peters vs. Knollenberg*
MO-06 Barnes vs. Graves*
MO-09 Baker vs. Luetkemeyer [Hulshof (R)]
LA-01 Harlan vs. Scalise*
LA-02 (Democratic primary race)
LA-04 Carmouche vs. ?
LA-06 Cazayoux* vs. Cassidy
LA-07 Cravins, Jr. vs. Boustany*
MS-01 Childers* vs. Davis
MS-03 Gill vs. Harper [Pickering (R)]
AL-02 Bright vs. Love [Everett (R)]
AL-03 Segall vs. M. Rogers*
AL-05 Griffith vs. W. Parker [Cramer (D)]
GA-08 J. Marshall* vs. Goddard
GA-12 Barrow* vs. Stone
FL-06 Cunha vs. Stearns*
FL-07 Armitage vs. Mica*
FL-08 Grayson vs. Keller*
FL-09 B. Mitchell vs. Bilirakis*
FL-10 Hackworth vs. B. Young*
FL-12 Tudor vs. Putnam*
FL-13 Jennings vs. V. Buchanan(*)
FL-15 Blythe vs. Posey [D. Weldon (R)]
FL-16 Mahoney* vs. Rooney
FL-18 Taddeo vs. Ros-Lehtinen*
FL-21 Martinez vs. L. Diaz-Balart*
FL-22 Klein* vs. West
FL-24 Kosmas vs. Feeney*
FL-25 Garcia vs. M. Diaz-Balart*
SC-01 Ketner vs. H. Brown*
SC-02 R. Miller vs. J. Wilson*
NC-08 Kissell vs. Hayes
NC-10 D. Johnson vs. McHenry*
VA-02 Nye vs. Drake*
VA-05 Perriello vs. V. Goode*
VA-10 Feder vs. Wolf*
VA-11 Connolly vs. Fimian [T. Davis (R)]
WV-02 Barth vs. Capito
KY-02 Ryan vs. Whitfield*
KY-02 Boswell vs. B. Guthrie [R. Lewis (R)]
KY-03 Yarmuth* vs. Northup
IL-06 Morgenthaler vs. Roskam*
IL-08 Bean* vs. Greenberg
IL-10 Seals vs. Kirk*
IL-11 Halvorson vs. Ozinga [Weller (R)]
IL-14 Foster* vs. Oberweis
IL-18 Callahan vs. Schock [LaHood (R)]
IN-02 Donnelly* vs. Puckett
IN-03 Montagano vs. Souder*
IN-06 Welsh vs. Pence*
IN-08 Ellsworth* vs. G. Goode
IN-09 Hill* vs. Sodrel
OH-01 Driehaus vs. Chabot*
OH-02 Wulsin vs. Schmidt*
OH-03 Mitakaides vs. M. Turner*
OH-07 Neuhardt vs. Austria [Hobson (R)]
OH-12 D. Robinson vs. Tiberi*
OH-14 O’Neill vs. LaTourette*
OH-15 Kilroy vs. Stivers [Pryce (R)]
OH-16 Boccieri vs. Schuring [Regula (R)]
OH-18 Space* vs. Dailey
PA-03 Dahlkemper vs. English*
PA-04 Altmire* vs. Hart
PA-05 McCracken vs. G. Thompson [J. Peterson (R)]
PA-06 Roggio vs. Gerlach*
PA-07 Sestak* vs. W. C. Williams
PA-08 P. Murphy* vs. Manion
PA-10 Carney* vs. C. Hackett
PA-11 Kanjorski* vs. Barletta
PA-15 Bennett vs. Dent*
NJ-03 Adler vs. Myers [Saxton (R)]
NJ-04 Zeitz vs. C. Smith*
NJ-05 Shulman vs. Garrett*
NJ-07 Stender vs. Lance [Ferguson (R)]
MD-01 Kratovil vs. Harris [Gilchrest (R)]
NY-13 McMahon vs. ? [Fossella (R)]
NY-19 Hall* vs. Lalor
NY-20 Gillibrand* vs. Treadwell
NY-21 (Democratic primary race)
NY-24 Arcuri* vs. Hanna
NY-25 Maffei vs. Sweetland [Walsh (R)]
NY-26 J. Powers vs. C. Lee [Reynolds (R)]
NY-29 Massa vs. Kuhl*
CT-02 Courtney* vs. Sullivan
CT-04 Himes vs. Shays*
NH-01 Shea-Porter* vs. Bradley
NH-02 Hodes* vs. ?
Are there any more races I’m missing? Are there any more in the following states: Georgia, Florida, Iowa, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina? GA-01? GA-10? NC-03? KY-04? KY-06? IL-13? IL-15? IN-04? IN-07?
Noone but me seemed to know who Palin was, and I’m talking about all college educated people who are typically though not overly informed on politics. One of the guys saw Palin on on the internet and quite a few people gathered around admiring how hot the wife the new VP Mr. Palin was. It took me awhile to explain that Sarah Palin IS the VP pick and not her husband. Quite amusing. Noone seemed to take anything about her, aside from her looks, seriously.
John Russell doesn’t stand a chance, but I’m curious to see how this plays out, with an eye for 2010. Ginny Brown-Waite’s husband recently passed away, and though she’s sticking through this race, it’s difficult to imagine her standing for reelection again. Do any central Floridians have a view on who might run next cycle, either party?
Berkowitz praises Palin as her Veep journey begins
“This is an exciting day for Alaska,” Berkowitz said. “Governor Palin has made her name fighting corruption within her own party and I was honored when she stepped across party lines and asked me to co-author her Ethics White Paper.’
1 million for Reichert, 1 million for Lincoln Diaz-Balart, $950,000 for Mario Diaz-Balart, $408,000 for Feeney, $800,000 for Shivers, $800,000 for Schuring, Undesignated amount for Jean Schmitt, $618,000 for Knollenberg, $832,000 for Tim Walberg, Undeclared amount against Lampson, and $213,000 against Kagan.
OR-Sen: How are those attack ads from the DSCC working out?
MT-Sen: No, I’m not joking! I want to see how Max is fairing against that nut Kelleher! If he’s getting anything below 75%, Max isn’t as good as he used to be!
IL-10: Just because of that recent ad, it reminded me about this race and that it was supposed to be competitive.
PA-11: This is in my view one of the Republicans’ few bright prospects at a pickup. What are the latest poll numbers here?
AK-AL: This whole thing is playing out like a soap opera. Don Young is armed and ready to sue everyone and everything if Parnell squeaks out in the primary.
WY-AL: I’d very much like to see a new poll for this race. I’m thinking this could be a sleeper and we don’t even know it.
CO-04: You’re going down you gay bashing bitch.
And out of the two Diaz-Balart brothers, who’s in more danger this year?
+ IN-04: The first (and perhaps only) debate between Ackerson and Buyer ended with some sparks. After accusing Ackerson of violating some procedural rule in his opening, Buyer angrily demanded an apology from Ackerson during his closing statement and apparently left immediately following the debate. The reports of the debate were buried under McCain Veepstakes news today, though, so it may not have much impact. I’d like to see if Ackerson is making any real headway here.
+ IN-GOV: The Long Thompson campaign is apparently getting serious about putting more and more people in the field, and the advertising is starting to come. The next Howey-Gauge poll is due out on 9/4, and I’m not sure about more SUSA or other polls.
AZ-3
CT-5
ID-2: I totally think Sali is going down this year. I’d put $1000 on it.
LA-6/7
MN-2/3/6: Massachusettes of the Midwest?
NJ-3/5/7
NM-2: Being a Texan, I can’t in good conscience trust a man who franchises out steakhouses. “WHERE’S THAT SALAD WAGON!” This needs mockery.
OH-1/2/7: Can’t we just take everyone who’s ever voted for Jean Schmidt and Bill Sali, throw them into a single congressional district and have the two of them run against each other? But that would take the fun out of voting them both out. Plus would either of them make it out alive? I smell movie plot.
TX-7/10/22: What kind of damage has Skelly’s airwave bombardment done to Culberson?
WA
IN
NC
MO
DE
being a former cake decorator, that border work is godawful. They put the icing on a little too close to the edge. Buttercream does not defy the laws of gravity! They probably paid a pretty penny for that too. No wonder we have a huge deficit. Probably didn’t eat it either.
I have an excel file also. Categorizing every single possible race. I was just telling a friend about it (weird looks yes). I have horrible insomnia and make random excel files of all varieties. It started off with my DVD collection and fantasy football when I was 18 (when I stopped smoking pot). Now years later it’s gotten to the absurd variety of congressional races and food in my fridge. My girlfriend calls me the biggest nerd on the planet for it but I don’t give her shit about her anal bathroom organization. Oh excel, “organizing your brain, so you don’t have to.” When I get my laptop back, we should trade.
In 2006, he tried (and failed) to run as both a Reform Party and Libertarian candidate.
But this district is similar to FL-15 this year in that our bench in the district is aweful. Probably only Thurman could make it competitive. Also, unlike most of Florida’s districts we aren’t seeing big gains on the republicans in registration in the 5th.
Keep an eye on Florida State House districts 107, 110-117 and 119. Those are the South FL house districts drawn for Hispanic (Mostly Cuban, but many other Hispanics as well) majorities. Nine of the ten are held by republicans, but we did pick one off in 2006 and may see some more gains this year thanks to the rapidly changing demographics in our favor. The more we grow our bench in the south FL Hispanic districts the stronger we’ll be for recruiting for higher level races in the future.
Yeah, my friends know. I know not to talk too much politics around them much, because they don’t really understand politics much. But they like to have fun at my expense by saying things like John McCain’s going to win and such.
Who really wants a “maverick” as President? – emotional, not thought out decision making does not cut it. I think the Repubs have a choice to make as we near the election — give up on McCain and transfer the RNC money to Senate races in play or keep the money on McCain and risk losing more Senate races. It would be a wonderful thing if we could “bring it on” in the Texas senate race — because I think Cornyn has big negatives and the Repubs will do anything not to lose the Texas Senate seat — including cutting McCain lose.
Nels Ackerson has done absolutely as good of a job as he possibly can campaigning all over the district, and holding do-nothing, arrogant idiot Steve Buyer’s feet to the fire. However, it is an impossible district for any Democrat. To put it in perspective, it was one point less pro-Bush in 2004 than Chet Edwawrd’s “Crawford-based district” was. The majority there will just not vote for any Democrat under any circumstances. I think Ackerson could get MAYBE into the low 40s, and that would be an important achievement to begin the long process of showing people there that Democrats are a viable option to consider.
As for the Gov race, I agree with the above comment that Jill Long Thompson seems to be getting more organization in the field. She also has a really good new ad out where she’s riding around in an RV. The RV industry is HUGE in northern Indiana (more of them are made there than anywhere else in the world), and a lot of very good paying jobs have been lost. Also, the symbolism is not lost on anyone here, as one of the main visuals of Daniels’ campaign in 2004 was him riding around the state in an RV. He’s from Carmel (the wealthiest suburb of Indianapolis), and he did a good job in 2004 connecting with rural Indiana — and perhaps Thompson’s best argument is “What have you done for areas outside of Indianapolis since then?”
I think when the next poll comes out, it will still show Daniels up maybe around 6-10 points or so, but this may be a tricky race to poll, as voting patterns might be quite different than normal. Daniels is going to clean up in suburban Indianapolis even more than Republicans usually do, and will probably do better in the city than he did four years ago — there will be more than a few people here that will vote “Obama/Daniels.” But Thompson will do better than typical in the outstate areas, especially in the north, where there will be a lot of “McCain/Thompson” voters — the question is how much better will she do than Democrats typically do.
Segall’s name ID is very low now b/c he hasn’t gone on TV yet. There was a recent poll that had him down 20 but that doesn’t account for two things. 1) No dem has ever gotten less than 90% of the african american vote in the 3rd, including the 2006 candidate, Greg Pierce, who only raised $7k to Rogers’ $1.1 million. If the poll were waited that way, Segall is probably only down 5-6 points. 2) The poll doesn’t account for the Obama bounce. This district is 33% African American.
Also, there’s this amazing, potentially explosive story:
Will Huricane Gustav have on the Primary Election in Louisiana on September 6th? Especially in LA-2. I doubt that if New Orleans gets hit hard, many votes will be cast. Can they legally postpone the Primary?
Specifically my home state of Michigan, but also Wisconsin, New York, Texas, Ohio, and Pennslyvania. I’ve been considering doing a diary on competitive races here in Michigan, but I want to know if people are interested. If so, let me know.
Senate:
Colorado
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oregon
House:
AZ-01
AZ-03
CA-46
CA-50
CO-04
FL-13
FL-18
FL-25
NV-02
NV-03
NJ-05
NJ-07
NM-01
NM-02
NY-26
As you can see, I’m particulary interested in what’s happening out west. Especially now with the convention over, I’d like to see if a likely “Obama bounce” in Colorado results in a bounce downticket for Mark Udall & Betsy Markey.
And the republicans gave me another reason to despise them and support Obama more than ever by picking a pretty face with almost no practical experience and insane views on everything from creationism to women’s rights. November can’t come soon enough. I was that smug prick McCain to go down in flames and retire to one of his dozen or so homes for good.
1. caption: McCain and Dubya attempt to sarcastically wish bin Laden a happy birthday, shortly before they suddenly realize that they actually haven’t caught and killed him yet.
2. senate races
Races in order of likelihood of flipping:
VA M. Warner vs. Gilmore [J. Warner (R)]
AK Begich vs. Stevens*
NM T. Udall vs. Pearce [Domenici (R)]
NH Shaheen vs. J. E. Sununu*
CO M. Udall vs. Schaffer [Allard (R)]
MN Franken vs. Coleman*
MS-special Musgrove vs. Wicker*
OR Merkley vs. Smith*
NC Hagan vs. Dole*
GA Martin vs. Chambliss*
ID LaRocco vs. Risch [Craig (R)]
ME Allen vs. Collins*
OK Rice vs. Inhofe*
KY Lunsford vs. McConnell*
LA Landrieu* vs. J. N. Kennedy
NE Kleeb vs. Johanns [Hagel (R)]
TX Noriega vs. Cornyn*
KS Slattery vs. Roberts*
and then the rest. I’m also following MA (Kerry vs. ?) and WY (Rothfuss vs. Enzi*) out of personal interest.
3. House races
AK-AL Berkowitz vs. ? [Young (R)]
CA-04 Brown vs. McClintock
CA-11 McNerney* vs.
CA-26 R. Warner vs. Dreier*
CA-46 Cook vs. Rorhabacher*
WA-08 Burner vs. Reichert*
OR-05 Schrader vs. Erickson [Hooley (D)]
ID-01 Minnick vs. Sali*
WY-AL Trauner vs. Lummis
CO-04 Markey vs. Musgrave*
AZ-01 ? vs. ? [Renzi (R)]
AZ-05 Mitchell* vs. ?
AZ-08 Giffords* vs. Bee
NM-01 Heinrich vs. White [H. Wilson (R)]
NM-02 Teague vs. Tinsley [Pearce (R)]
NM-03 Lujan vs. East [T. Udall (D)]
TX-07 Skelly vs. Culberson*
TX-10 Doherty vs. McCaul*
TX-22 Lampson* vs. Olsen
TX-23 Rodriguez* vs. Larson
OK-01 Oliver vs. Sullivan*
NE-02 Esch vs. Terry*
KS-02 Boyda* vs. Jenkins
MN-01 Walz* vs. ?
MN-02 Sarvi vs. Kline*
MN-03 Madia vs. Paulsen [Ramstad (R)]
WI-08 Kagen* vs. Gard
MI-07 Schauer vs. Walberg*
MI-09 Peters vs. Knollenberg*
MO-06 Barnes vs. Graves*
MO-09 Baker vs. Luetkemeyer [Hulshof (R)]
LA-01 Harlan vs. Scalise*
LA-02 (Democratic primary race)
LA-04 Carmouche vs. ?
LA-06 Cazayoux* vs. Cassidy
LA-07 Cravins, Jr. vs. Boustany*
MS-01 Childers* vs. Davis
MS-03 Gill vs. Harper [Pickering (R)]
AL-02 Bright vs. Love [Everett (R)]
AL-03 Segall vs. M. Rogers*
AL-05 Griffith vs. W. Parker [Cramer (D)]
GA-08 J. Marshall* vs. Goddard
GA-12 Barrow* vs. Stone
FL-06 Cunha vs. Stearns*
FL-07 Armitage vs. Mica*
FL-08 Grayson vs. Keller*
FL-09 B. Mitchell vs. Bilirakis*
FL-10 Hackworth vs. B. Young*
FL-12 Tudor vs. Putnam*
FL-13 Jennings vs. V. Buchanan(*)
FL-15 Blythe vs. Posey [D. Weldon (R)]
FL-16 Mahoney* vs. Rooney
FL-18 Taddeo vs. Ros-Lehtinen*
FL-21 Martinez vs. L. Diaz-Balart*
FL-22 Klein* vs. West
FL-24 Kosmas vs. Feeney*
FL-25 Garcia vs. M. Diaz-Balart*
SC-01 Ketner vs. H. Brown*
SC-02 R. Miller vs. J. Wilson*
NC-08 Kissell vs. Hayes
NC-10 D. Johnson vs. McHenry*
VA-02 Nye vs. Drake*
VA-05 Perriello vs. V. Goode*
VA-10 Feder vs. Wolf*
VA-11 Connolly vs. Fimian [T. Davis (R)]
WV-02 Barth vs. Capito
KY-02 Ryan vs. Whitfield*
KY-02 Boswell vs. B. Guthrie [R. Lewis (R)]
KY-03 Yarmuth* vs. Northup
IL-06 Morgenthaler vs. Roskam*
IL-08 Bean* vs. Greenberg
IL-10 Seals vs. Kirk*
IL-11 Halvorson vs. Ozinga [Weller (R)]
IL-14 Foster* vs. Oberweis
IL-18 Callahan vs. Schock [LaHood (R)]
IN-02 Donnelly* vs. Puckett
IN-03 Montagano vs. Souder*
IN-06 Welsh vs. Pence*
IN-08 Ellsworth* vs. G. Goode
IN-09 Hill* vs. Sodrel
OH-01 Driehaus vs. Chabot*
OH-02 Wulsin vs. Schmidt*
OH-03 Mitakaides vs. M. Turner*
OH-07 Neuhardt vs. Austria [Hobson (R)]
OH-12 D. Robinson vs. Tiberi*
OH-14 O’Neill vs. LaTourette*
OH-15 Kilroy vs. Stivers [Pryce (R)]
OH-16 Boccieri vs. Schuring [Regula (R)]
OH-18 Space* vs. Dailey
PA-03 Dahlkemper vs. English*
PA-04 Altmire* vs. Hart
PA-05 McCracken vs. G. Thompson [J. Peterson (R)]
PA-06 Roggio vs. Gerlach*
PA-07 Sestak* vs. W. C. Williams
PA-08 P. Murphy* vs. Manion
PA-10 Carney* vs. C. Hackett
PA-11 Kanjorski* vs. Barletta
PA-15 Bennett vs. Dent*
NJ-03 Adler vs. Myers [Saxton (R)]
NJ-04 Zeitz vs. C. Smith*
NJ-05 Shulman vs. Garrett*
NJ-07 Stender vs. Lance [Ferguson (R)]
MD-01 Kratovil vs. Harris [Gilchrest (R)]
NY-13 McMahon vs. ? [Fossella (R)]
NY-19 Hall* vs. Lalor
NY-20 Gillibrand* vs. Treadwell
NY-21 (Democratic primary race)
NY-24 Arcuri* vs. Hanna
NY-25 Maffei vs. Sweetland [Walsh (R)]
NY-26 J. Powers vs. C. Lee [Reynolds (R)]
NY-29 Massa vs. Kuhl*
CT-02 Courtney* vs. Sullivan
CT-04 Himes vs. Shays*
NH-01 Shea-Porter* vs. Bradley
NH-02 Hodes* vs. ?
Are there any more races I’m missing? Are there any more in the following states: Georgia, Florida, Iowa, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina? GA-01? GA-10? NC-03? KY-04? KY-06? IL-13? IL-15? IN-04? IN-07?
Noone but me seemed to know who Palin was, and I’m talking about all college educated people who are typically though not overly informed on politics. One of the guys saw Palin on on the internet and quite a few people gathered around admiring how hot the wife the new VP Mr. Palin was. It took me awhile to explain that Sarah Palin IS the VP pick and not her husband. Quite amusing. Noone seemed to take anything about her, aside from her looks, seriously.
John Russell doesn’t stand a chance, but I’m curious to see how this plays out, with an eye for 2010. Ginny Brown-Waite’s husband recently passed away, and though she’s sticking through this race, it’s difficult to imagine her standing for reelection again. Do any central Floridians have a view on who might run next cycle, either party?
Carney Internal poll by Momentum Analysis
400 likely voters, MoE of 4.9%
Carney 54%
Hackett 27%
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Berkowitz praises Palin as her Veep journey begins
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
NRCC hits wave two of reserving ad time.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
1 million for Reichert, 1 million for Lincoln Diaz-Balart, $950,000 for Mario Diaz-Balart, $408,000 for Feeney, $800,000 for Shivers, $800,000 for Schuring, Undesignated amount for Jean Schmitt, $618,000 for Knollenberg, $832,000 for Tim Walberg, Undeclared amount against Lampson, and $213,000 against Kagan.
OR-Sen: How are those attack ads from the DSCC working out?
MT-Sen: No, I’m not joking! I want to see how Max is fairing against that nut Kelleher! If he’s getting anything below 75%, Max isn’t as good as he used to be!
IL-10: Just because of that recent ad, it reminded me about this race and that it was supposed to be competitive.
PA-11: This is in my view one of the Republicans’ few bright prospects at a pickup. What are the latest poll numbers here?
AK-AL: This whole thing is playing out like a soap opera. Don Young is armed and ready to sue everyone and everything if Parnell squeaks out in the primary.
WY-AL: I’d very much like to see a new poll for this race. I’m thinking this could be a sleeper and we don’t even know it.
CO-04: You’re going down you gay bashing bitch.
And out of the two Diaz-Balart brothers, who’s in more danger this year?
+ IN-04: The first (and perhaps only) debate between Ackerson and Buyer ended with some sparks. After accusing Ackerson of violating some procedural rule in his opening, Buyer angrily demanded an apology from Ackerson during his closing statement and apparently left immediately following the debate. The reports of the debate were buried under McCain Veepstakes news today, though, so it may not have much impact. I’d like to see if Ackerson is making any real headway here.
+ IN-GOV: The Long Thompson campaign is apparently getting serious about putting more and more people in the field, and the advertising is starting to come. The next Howey-Gauge poll is due out on 9/4, and I’m not sure about more SUSA or other polls.
AZ-3
CT-5
ID-2: I totally think Sali is going down this year. I’d put $1000 on it.
LA-6/7
MN-2/3/6: Massachusettes of the Midwest?
NJ-3/5/7
NM-2: Being a Texan, I can’t in good conscience trust a man who franchises out steakhouses. “WHERE’S THAT SALAD WAGON!” This needs mockery.
OH-1/2/7: Can’t we just take everyone who’s ever voted for Jean Schmidt and Bill Sali, throw them into a single congressional district and have the two of them run against each other? But that would take the fun out of voting them both out. Plus would either of them make it out alive? I smell movie plot.
TX-7/10/22: What kind of damage has Skelly’s airwave bombardment done to Culberson?
WA
IN
NC
MO
DE
being a former cake decorator, that border work is godawful. They put the icing on a little too close to the edge. Buttercream does not defy the laws of gravity! They probably paid a pretty penny for that too. No wonder we have a huge deficit. Probably didn’t eat it either.
I have an excel file also. Categorizing every single possible race. I was just telling a friend about it (weird looks yes). I have horrible insomnia and make random excel files of all varieties. It started off with my DVD collection and fantasy football when I was 18 (when I stopped smoking pot). Now years later it’s gotten to the absurd variety of congressional races and food in my fridge. My girlfriend calls me the biggest nerd on the planet for it but I don’t give her shit about her anal bathroom organization. Oh excel, “organizing your brain, so you don’t have to.” When I get my laptop back, we should trade.
In 2006, he tried (and failed) to run as both a Reform Party and Libertarian candidate.
But this district is similar to FL-15 this year in that our bench in the district is aweful. Probably only Thurman could make it competitive. Also, unlike most of Florida’s districts we aren’t seeing big gains on the republicans in registration in the 5th.
You got just about every other one? lol
Virginia Foxx: 51%
Roy Carter: 41%
FL-24 – Leans R -> Tossup
FL-09 – Likely R -> Solid R
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c…
I do agree with both moves, though I’m surprised FL-08 and FL-21 were not moved to tossups as well.
There’s no way I’m the first person to notice that but its her alright.
http://hughesforamerica.typepa…
Keep an eye on Florida State House districts 107, 110-117 and 119. Those are the South FL house districts drawn for Hispanic (Mostly Cuban, but many other Hispanics as well) majorities. Nine of the ten are held by republicans, but we did pick one off in 2006 and may see some more gains this year thanks to the rapidly changing demographics in our favor. The more we grow our bench in the south FL Hispanic districts the stronger we’ll be for recruiting for higher level races in the future.
Yeah, my friends know. I know not to talk too much politics around them much, because they don’t really understand politics much. But they like to have fun at my expense by saying things like John McCain’s going to win and such.
Who really wants a “maverick” as President? – emotional, not thought out decision making does not cut it. I think the Repubs have a choice to make as we near the election — give up on McCain and transfer the RNC money to Senate races in play or keep the money on McCain and risk losing more Senate races. It would be a wonderful thing if we could “bring it on” in the Texas senate race — because I think Cornyn has big negatives and the Repubs will do anything not to lose the Texas Senate seat — including cutting McCain lose.
Nels Ackerson has done absolutely as good of a job as he possibly can campaigning all over the district, and holding do-nothing, arrogant idiot Steve Buyer’s feet to the fire. However, it is an impossible district for any Democrat. To put it in perspective, it was one point less pro-Bush in 2004 than Chet Edwawrd’s “Crawford-based district” was. The majority there will just not vote for any Democrat under any circumstances. I think Ackerson could get MAYBE into the low 40s, and that would be an important achievement to begin the long process of showing people there that Democrats are a viable option to consider.
As for the Gov race, I agree with the above comment that Jill Long Thompson seems to be getting more organization in the field. She also has a really good new ad out where she’s riding around in an RV. The RV industry is HUGE in northern Indiana (more of them are made there than anywhere else in the world), and a lot of very good paying jobs have been lost. Also, the symbolism is not lost on anyone here, as one of the main visuals of Daniels’ campaign in 2004 was him riding around the state in an RV. He’s from Carmel (the wealthiest suburb of Indianapolis), and he did a good job in 2004 connecting with rural Indiana — and perhaps Thompson’s best argument is “What have you done for areas outside of Indianapolis since then?”
I think when the next poll comes out, it will still show Daniels up maybe around 6-10 points or so, but this may be a tricky race to poll, as voting patterns might be quite different than normal. Daniels is going to clean up in suburban Indianapolis even more than Republicans usually do, and will probably do better in the city than he did four years ago — there will be more than a few people here that will vote “Obama/Daniels.” But Thompson will do better than typical in the outstate areas, especially in the north, where there will be a lot of “McCain/Thompson” voters — the question is how much better will she do than Democrats typically do.
Segall’s name ID is very low now b/c he hasn’t gone on TV yet. There was a recent poll that had him down 20 but that doesn’t account for two things. 1) No dem has ever gotten less than 90% of the african american vote in the 3rd, including the 2006 candidate, Greg Pierce, who only raised $7k to Rogers’ $1.1 million. If the poll were waited that way, Segall is probably only down 5-6 points. 2) The poll doesn’t account for the Obama bounce. This district is 33% African American.
Also, there’s this amazing, potentially explosive story:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…
Will Huricane Gustav have on the Primary Election in Louisiana on September 6th? Especially in LA-2. I doubt that if New Orleans gets hit hard, many votes will be cast. Can they legally postpone the Primary?